March 11, 2018 was supposed to be the day the Philadelphia Phillies announced they were back.
After six straight losing seasons and years of rebuilding, the Phillies finally had money to spend and they spent it. They signed Jake Arrieta to a three-year, $75 million contract Wikipedia — the last marquee free agent still standing in a slow, painful offseason market that had dragged on well past its welcome.
On paper it made sense. Arrieta had won the 2015 National League Cy Young Award after turning in one of the best post-All-Star break performances in baseball history, finishing that season with a 1.77 ERA. Bureau of Labor Statistics He had two no-hitters. He had a World Series ring with the Cubs in 2016. He was exactly the kind of proven arm a rebuilding team needed to signal it was done rebuilding.
The problem was the market had already told a story the Phillies weren’t listening to. Arrieta had shown signs of decline — particularly a drop in velocity — in 2017, and that’s what kept him on the market deep into March in the first place. MLB Every other team had looked at the numbers and passed. Philadelphia looked at the name on the back of the jersey and wrote the check.
Arrieta would earn $30 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019, and $20 million in 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame — a back-loaded structure that looked reasonable at signing and increasingly uncomfortable as the seasons wore on.
There were flashes of the old Arrieta. He had an 0.90 ERA in five starts in May 2018 — brilliant stretches that reminded everyone why the Phillies had wanted him. MLB But the brilliance was sandwiched between injuries and inconsistency that became the defining story of his time in Philadelphia. Both of his last two seasons ended on the injured list — first an elbow bone spur, then a hamstring strain. MLB
By the time his contract expired, Arrieta had gone 22-23 with a 4.36 ERA in 64 starts for the Phillies, averaging under six innings per outing. MLB For a pitcher earning top-five starter money, it was a disappointment that was hard to spin any other way.
The deal would eventually be labeled one of the worst contracts in Phillies history NBC Sports — not because Arrieta was a bad pitcher, but because Philadelphia paid for the Cy Young version and got the declining version instead. The market had tried to warn them in March 2018. They just didn’t want to hear it.
Arrieta finished his career back in Chicago briefly in 2021 before retiring. The Phillies kept spending — on Harper, Wheeler, McCutchen — and kept missing the playoffs until 2022 when it all finally came together. By then, Jake Arrieta was a footnote.
Sometimes the last big fish available at closing time is available for a reason.
